Revised projections by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA] in the U.S. for the Atlantic Hurricane Season left one high ranking meteorological officer surprised, especially since The Bahamas is said to be in the hurricane belt.
But the Bahamas Department of Meteorology said atmospheric and oceanic conditions have spawned a sharp increase in the number of storms forecast for this season.
NOAA’s predictions now include as many as 21 tropical storms and 11 hurricanes, seven to nine of which could balloon into intense storms.
Three to five of them are expected to become major hurricanes, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
Professor William Gray and his team at the Colorado State University had predicted a total of 13 named storms and seven hurricanes, three of which were expected to be intense.
Chief Meteorologist, Basil Dean admitted that he was surprised by the most recent prediction despite anticipating a very active season.
“The first half of the hurricane season is generally very slow,” he said. “As a matter of fact, this is the first time since records have been kept that we have had so many storms at this juncture in the season.”
“We have had seven named storms already. We now have tropical depression number eight sitting out there in the Atlantic and that is forecast to become a tropical storm. When you consider June, July and early August being relatively slow in terms of tropical cyclone development – and we still have the more active period being late August and September – it is reasonable to assume that the 15 storms that we predicted earlier would be surpassed,” he added.
Forecasters were yesterday watching the developments of Tropical Storm Harvey, as it slowly approached Bermuda.
On Wednesday afternoon, Harvey, the eighth named storm of the hurricane season, had top sustained winds near 40 mph.
Met officials have explained that there are a number of contributing factors to these storms becoming more fierce like deforestation, which changes the composition of the atmosphere’s gases.
“Of course, there is also the issue of the sea surface temperatures, which are very warm this year, which is one of the ingredients necessary for tropical cyclone development,” Mr. Dean said.
“We also looked at upper level winds. We generally look for weak vertical wind shears and those have also been very, very favourable so far this season and they all lead to the busy season that we have had so far,” he explained.
It was against this backdrop that officials stressed the message of preparedness.
“This is most certainly the case – the greater the numbers, the greater the chances of being affected by these tropical storms. Residents should hasten to ensure that the necessary precautions have been taken and that their properties in particular have been looked after in terms of repairs to roofs,” Mr. Dean said.
Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne ripped through The Bahamas last September, leaving behind the worst damage in Grand Bahama, Abaco and parts of Eleuthera and San Salvador.
Earlier this year, Prime Minister Perry Christie indicated that the government was examining draft legislation aimed at bringing a more focused and organized approach to hurricane preparedness.
According to Mr. Christie, the legislation has been influenced heavily by draft proposals put forth by the Caribbean Disaster Agency.
One of the most pivotal provisions would relate to clear powers for declarations of emergencies, mandatory evacuations and curfews.
Professor Gray and his team were expected to issue more hurricane updates on August 5, September 2 and October 3.
By: Macushla N. Pinder, The Bahama Journal
